RVPH: The Meme Pump Just Started
And Why You Shouldn't Panic When It Dumps
November 27, 2025 - Stage 1 of meme pump detected
19 minutes ago, this post appeared on r/Pennystock:
“$RVPH could 10x from here. Expecting FDA feedback in December and 8.84 days to cover on shorts - massive squeeze potential. Phase 3 successful. Could go over $6+ in January/February.”
If you’re reading this because you just saw RVPH on Reddit with rocket emojis, you need to understand what’s about to happen.
This is Stage 1 of a meme pump. I’ve seen this play out dozens of times with FEMY, DVLT, CABA, and countless others. Here’s the playbook:
Stage 1 (NOW): “DD” posts appear, volume climbs, price up 10-20%
Stage 2 (Next 2-3 days): Volume explodes, price rips 30-50%, FOMO kicks in
Stage 3 (Days 3-5): Parabolic move to $1.50-2.00, “This is going to $10!” everywhere
Stage 4 (Days 5-7): The Dump - price crashes 40-60%, panic selling, “I’m ruined” posts
Stage 5 (Days 7-14): Bagholders at $1.20-1.50, volume dies, Reddit goes quiet
Then the REAL catalyst hits in December.
I’m writing this at Stage 1 for one reason: So you don’t panic-sell at Stage 4.
Because RVPH isn’t a meme stock. It’s a real company with real Phase 3 data and a real FDA meeting in December. The meme pump is noise. The fundamentals are signal.
Here’s what you need to know before the pump takes over.
The FEMY Lesson: Real Companies Survive Dumps
Remember FEMY? We watched it get crushed from $1.80 down to $0.31. The meme rats panicked. The day traders bailed. Everyone thought it was dead.
Then what happened?
FDA granted Investigational Device Exemption approval for FemBloc. $12M financing closed. Final phase of pivotal trial approved. Stock climbed back to $1.03. Analysts still have $7.33 targets (600% upside).
The company was real. The product was real. The panic was noise.
RVPH is the same situation.
RVPH: The Fundamentals Haven’t Changed
What We Know:
Brilaroxazine completed Phase 3 RECOVER trial (met primary endpoint)
FDA alignment achieved April 2024
Pre-NDA meeting scheduled Q4 2025 (December - THIS MONTH)
NDA submission targeted Q2 2026
$13.2M cash as of Q3 2025
Current ratio 1.39x (18-24 month runway)
Q3 earnings beat estimates (-$0.06 vs -$0.10 expected, +40% surprise)
4 consecutive quarters beating burn estimates (+28%, +31%, +7%, +40%)
Presenting negative symptom data at Neuroscience 2025 (Nov 15-19)
Presenting anti-inflammatory impacts at CNS Summit 2025
Analyst Coverage:
7 analysts covering RVPH
100% Strong Buy ratings (7 out of 7)
Price targets: $2-$16/share
Consensus: $10-12/share (1,900-2,200% upside from $0.52)
Zacks Small-Cap Research: $4.00 target (665% upside)
The Comp Deals:
Bristol-Myers Squibb bought Karuna Therapeutics (schizophrenia drug): $14 BILLION
AbbVie bought Cerevel Therapeutics (schizophrenia drug): $8.7 BILLION
RVPH market cap: $60M
That’s 0.4% of what Karuna sold for. 0.7% of what Cerevel sold for.
Why the Meme Pump is Starting (And Why It Doesn’t Change Anything)
The Reddit post mentions three things:
“FDA feedback in December” - This is real. Pre-NDA meeting scheduled Q4 2025.
“8.84 days to cover on shorts” - Short squeeze narrative. Classic meme bait.
“Could go over $6+” - Based on analyst targets, but ignores the path to get there.
Here’s what the meme rats are missing:
The December FDA meeting is binary. If FDA says “submit the NDA,” stock re-rates to $1.50-2.00 immediately. If FDA says “we need another trial,” stock drops to $0.30-0.40.
The meme pump will happen BEFORE the December catalyst. That means:
You’ll see RVPH run to $1.50-2.00 on hype and FOMO (Stage 2-3)
Then it’ll dump back to $0.60-0.80 when early traders take profits (Stage 4)
Then the REAL move happens in December when FDA announces their decision
The pump is a preview. The catalyst is the main event.
What Happens During Each Stage (And What You Should Do)
Stage 1 (NOW - $0.52):
More DD posts appearing on Reddit
Volume climbing from 9.54M average to 15-20M
Price moving up 10-20% to $0.60-0.65
What to do: If you’re buying, buy NOW before Stage 2. If you’re holding, hold.
Stage 2 (Next 2-3 days - $0.65-0.90):
Volume explodes to 30-50M
Price rips 30-50%
StockTwits and Twitter pick it up
“I’m in with 1000 shares!” comments everywhere
What to do: Don’t chase. If you bought at Stage 1, you’re up 30-50%. Don’t get greedy. Set stop losses.
Stage 3 (Days 3-5 - $1.00-1.50):
Parabolic move
“RVPH to $10!” posts everywhere
Rocket emojis 🚀🚀🚀
New buyers piling in at the top
What to do: If you’re up 100-200%, TRIM. Take profits. Lock in gains. The dump is coming.
Stage 4 (Days 5-7 - Dump to $0.60-0.80):
Price crashes 40-60% in 1-2 days
Panic selling
“WTF just happened?” posts
“I’m holding!” copium
What to do: DON’T PANIC SELL. This is the test. If you sold at Stage 3, you’re fine. If you’re still holding, remember the fundamentals. December catalyst is still coming.
Stage 5 (Days 7-14 - $0.60-0.80):
Price stabilizes
Volume dies back to 5-10M
Reddit goes quiet
Bagholders at $1.20-1.50 average
What to do: Hold through December. The meme rats are gone. Now it’s just you and the fundamentals.
December Catalyst (The Real Move):
FDA pre-NDA meeting outcome announced
If “submit” → stock goes $1.50-2.00+ (M&A probability jumps to 80%)
If “another trial” → stock drops to $0.30-0.40 (cut losses immediately)
What to do: This is the binary event that matters. The meme pump was noise. This is signal.
Why I’m Not Selling
1. The Science is Real
Brilaroxazine is a novel multimodal modulator of serotonin, dopamine, and nicotinic receptors. It’s not vaporware. It’s not a concept. It’s a real drug with real Phase 3 data showing improved efficacy and better side effects than existing antipsychotics.
2. The Market is Massive
Schizophrenia drug market: $10+ billion annually
Unmet need persists (efficacy, side effects, compliance issues)
Big Pharma is actively acquiring schizophrenia assets (Karuna, Cerevel)
3. The Valuation is Absurd
$60M market cap vs $8-14B comp deals
Analysts see $10-12/share (1,900-2,200% upside)
Even conservative $5/share target = 860% return
4. The Timeline is Clear
December 2025: Pre-NDA meeting (binary catalyst)
Q2 2026: NDA submission (if FDA approves)
2027: Approval + M&A
5. Management is Executing
4 consecutive quarters beating burn estimates
Current ratio improved to 1.39x (18-24 month runway)
Cash position stronger than market assumes ($13.2M)
What Could Go Wrong
I’m not blind to the risks. Here’s what keeps me cautious:
FDA Risk:
Pre-NDA meeting could require additional trials
NDA submission could be delayed
Approval is never guaranteed
Dilution Risk:
Even with 18-24 months runway, they’ll need to raise capital
If they raise at $0.52, shareholders get diluted
Convertible notes or warrant exercises could pressure the stock
Execution Risk:
Management could fumble the FDA process
M&A suitors could walk away
Competitors could launch better drugs
Interest Coverage:
-1665x interest coverage means they’re bleeding on debt service with no revenue
This is unsustainable long-term without approval
But these risks are priced in at $0.52/share.
The market is assuming failure. I’m betting on success.
The FEMY Parallel: Why This Feels Familiar
FEMY taught me something important: real companies with real products survive volatility.
FEMY’s journey:
$1.80 → $0.31 (83% drop) → FDA approval → $1.03 (233% gain from bottom)
Analysts still see $7.33 (600% upside from $1.03)
Meme pump → Dump → Panic → Real catalyst → Recovery → Long-term value
RVPH’s journey so far:
$4.28 → $0.52 (88% drop) → Pre-NDA meeting coming → ???
Analysts see $10-12 (1,900-2,200% upside from $0.52)
Meme pump starting NOW → Dump coming in 5-7 days → December catalyst
The pattern is the same:
Meme pump → Dump → Panic → Real catalyst → Recovery → M&A
I’m not selling RVPH for the same reason I didn’t sell FEMY at $0.31.
Real companies with real products don’t stay at fire-sale prices forever.
But RVPH has better fundamentals than FEMY had:
4 consecutive quarters beating burn estimates (FEMY was missing estimates)
Current ratio 1.39x (FEMY’s was lower)
Phase 3 completed successfully (FEMY was still in trials)
Pre-NDA meeting scheduled (FEMY hadn’t gotten there yet)
Both had real science. Both survived dumps. RVPH’s execution is actually stronger.
What I’m Watching
December 2025: Pre-NDA Meeting Outcome
This is the catalyst that matters. If FDA says “submit,” stock re-rates immediately.
Meme Pump Stages 2-4
I’m watching volume and price action. When Stage 3 peaks, I’ll trim some shares to lock profits.
Cash Position Updates
If they announce a raise before December, that’s a red flag (means they know FDA meeting won’t go well).
Analyst Updates
If any of the 7 Strong Buy analysts downgrade, that’s a warning sign.
Why You Shouldn’t Panic
If you’re holding RVPH or buying during Stage 1-2, here’s what you need to remember:
The meme pump is noise. The December catalyst is signal.
FEMY dropped 83% and came back. RVPH can too.
The fundamentals haven’t changed.
Phase 3 trial succeeded. FDA meeting is scheduled. NDA submission is on track.
The market is pricing in failure.
$60M market cap vs $8-14B comps = market assumes 99% chance of failure. That’s absurd.
The catalyst is coming.
December pre-NDA meeting will clarify the path forward in 2-4 weeks.
Real companies survive dumps.
FEMY did. RVPH will.
But you need to survive Stage 4.
When the meme pump dumps (and it will), don’t panic sell. Remember why you bought. The fundamentals don’t change because Reddit moved on to the next ticker.
My Plan (And What You Should Consider)
Stage 1-2 ($0.52-0.75):
Hold all shares “If you want in or to add do it now low 50s”
Let the pump build
Don’t chase if you’re not in pre .70s
Stage 3 ($1.00-1.50):
Trim 30-50% of position
Lock in profits
Protect against Stage 4 dump
Stage 4 (Dump to $0.60-0.80):
Hold remaining shares
Don’t panic sell
Remember December catalyst
December Catalyst:
If FDA says “submit” → hold through Q2 2026 NDA submission
If FDA says “another trial” → cut losses immediately
Target exit: $10-15/share (M&A range in 2026-2027)
Final Thoughts
I’m not telling you to buy RVPH. I’m not telling you to hold if you’re uncomfortable. This is a high-risk, high-reward micro-cap biotech with binary outcomes.
But I am telling you this: don’t let a meme pump shake you out of a long-term thesis.
The Reddit Rats will pump it to $1.50 in the next week. Then they’ll dump it back to $0.70. Then they’ll panic and move on to the next ticker.
But the smart money? The smart money holds real companies through the noise.
RVPH is real. Brilaroxazine is real. The FDA meeting is real. The M&A comps are real.
The meme pump is temporary. The thesis is intact.
The pump will come and go in 7-14 days. The December catalyst is what matters.
Don’t be a meme rat. Understand what you own. Survive Stage 4. And hold for the real move in December.
Position disclosure: I hold 1000 shares at $0.47 cost basis This is 0.05% of my portfolio - proper lottery ticket sizing. I will trim 30-50% during Stage 3 “ can always buy back after the dump” and hold the rest through December. This is not financial advice. Do your own research.
Have a Great thanksgiving this is not all bad if you trim the pump peak & wait till the dump to buy it back you will be fine.
Joe
Enjoyed the walk through the meme stages with specific price and volume ranges, but keeping things tied back to the actual binary December catalyst. It feels like a playbook for surviving an emotional whiplash around these pumps. And it's true, a brutal drawdown doesn’t automatically mean the underlying business is broken, especially when there's a cash runway and analyst expectations.
So far & it's WAY to early to call its looking like the real money is winning. Up on a sector weak day with no real crazy volume spike is a great sign. But we all know last hour & after hours can get wild !