Week Ahead Preview
Why Position Sizing Beats Perfect Timing November 17, 2025
Last week reminded me of a fundamental truth: you don’t need perfect timing when you manage risk properly.
While Reddit debated diamond hands or panic sell, I was trimming positions, locking partial profits, and keeping enough exposure to capture upside. This is how you survive volatility.
The CLNN Trade: Position Sizing in Action
CLNN reported brutal earnings November 12—revenue down 36.6%, cash burn accelerating. I trimmed significantly, keeping a small core holding.
Three days later, CLNN announced strengthened ALS survival data and popped +19%.
Did I miss some upside? Yes. Did I protect capital? Also yes.
My remaining position caught the move. I didn’t need the full ride.
The lesson: When you size properly, you can be wrong about timing and still make money. You can miss part of a move and still sleep at night. You survive surprises without blowing up.
This is what separates investors from gamblers.
Three Biotech Catalysts I’m Watching
1. PSTV (Plus Therapeutics) - $0.51, $70M Market Cap
The Setup: Presented ReSPECT-LM trial results at SITC (Nov 6) targeting leptomeningeal metastases—where cancer spreads to brain/spinal cord membranes. Median survival measured in weeks. Zero effective treatments.
Why It Matters: REYOBIQ™ delivers targeted radiotherapy directly into cerebrospinal fluid. If survival data holds, this is acquisition bait.
M&A Comps: Immunomedics/$21B (Gilead), Loxo/$8B (Lilly), Mirati/$4.8B (BMS). PSTV at $70M is a rounding error for Big Pharma with oncology franchises.
The Risk: Small patient population, complex trial execution. Size accordingly.
Catalyst: Ongoing data readouts through 2026
2. ACRS (Aclaris Therapeutics) - $2.52, $273M Market Cap
The Setup: Phase 2a results for ATI-2138 (ITK/JAK3 inhibitor) showed significant improvement in atopic dermatitis at EADV Congress. Topical formulation could beat oral JAK inhibitors on safety.
The Institutional Buying Wave:
Millennium Management more than doubled position: +2,175,101 shares to 4,134,148 shares
Goldman Sachs increased stake ~29.7%
Acadian Asset Management up 10.9%: +238,659 shares to 2,433,850 shares
Total institutional ownership: 98.34%
When Millennium doubles down and Goldman increases by 30%, that’s conviction.
Stock broke above $2.50 resistance on heavy volume (+8.6% Nov 14).
Why It Matters: Dermatology is massive. Atopic dermatitis affects 15-20% of kids, 1-3% of adults. Pfizer’s Cibinqo and Lilly’s Olumiant generate billions. Market is validated.
M&A Comps: Anacor/$5.2B (Pfizer), Kythera/$2.1B (Allergan), Foamix/$1.1B (Menlo).
ACRS has multiple programs beyond ATI-2138. Diversified pipeline in hot therapeutic area.
The Risk: Phase 2a is early. Larger trials could differ. But smart money is accumulating.
Catalyst: Phase 2 in additional indication H1 2026, ongoing bosakitug/ATI-052 data
3. GANX (Gain Therapeutics) - $2.83, $102M Market Cap
The Setup: Completed Phase 1b enrollment (21 patients) in Parkinson’s disease. Nov 12 data showed GT-02287 has disease-slowing effects—not just symptom management.
Stock up 80% in 7 days, broke 52-week high at $3.06.
Why It Matters: Parkinson’s affects 10M+ worldwide, doubling by 2040. Current drugs only manage symptoms. Disease-modifying therapy is paradigm shift.
Analyst Support (86% Strong Buy):
BTIG: $9 (+218%)
HC Wainwright: $8 (+183%)
Maxim: $7 (+147%)
M&A Angle: Lilly (active in neuro), Biogen (neurodegen focus), Roche (rare disease), Takeda (neuroscience). GANX at $102M with computational platform (SEE-Tx) is attractive.
The Risk: Ran hard. Phase 1b is early, small population. Cash burn continues.
Catalyst: Earnings Nov 19, Phase 1b data through Q1 2026
The Common Thread
All three share:
Small caps ($70M-$273M) = easy targets
Near-term catalysts = binary 50-200% moves
Institutional backing
M&A profiles
Clinical data is binary. But when it works in small-cap biotech, moves are explosive.
Regional Bank M&A: COLB
Q3 2025: 52 deals, $16.6B (busiest in 4 years). Fifth Third/Comerica $10.9B, Pinnacle/Synovus $8.6B.
COLB (Columbia Banking) - $27.14, $8.1B cap, 5.3% yield
HoldCo Asset Management launched public campaign demanding sale. Two presentations in 60 days. Translation: sell or face proxy fight.
M&A Case:
$8B cap = ideal consolidation size
West Coast footprint
Solid fundamentals, P/E 12x
Target: $32-38 (+18-40%)
The Play: Collect 5.3% dividend while waiting for M&A. Activist + consolidation wave = 6-12 month catalyst.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
Monday: Retail sales (holiday spending trends)
Wednesday: Fed minutes (rate cut hints?)
Thursday: Jobless claims (labor market)
Friday: Housing starts (real estate health)
Not trading the macro—just aware. My positions are catalyst-driven, not data-dependent.
Educational: The ETF Overlap Trap
Own QQQ, VGT, and SCHG? You think you’re diversified.
You’re not.
All three are 7-10% Apple, 7-9% Microsoft, 7-8% Nvidia. You’re 3x leveraged to the same five stocks.
The Fix:
Use etfrc.com overlap calculator
Check top 10 holdings before buying
Diversify across sectors/geographies, not just fund names
Don’t accidentally build a portfolio that’s 30% mega-cap tech.
Coming This Week
Wednesday (Paid): Deep dive on one biotech above—full M&A analysis, acquirer profiles, entry/exit strategy, plus personalized portfolio analysis and insights on your holdings.
Friday (Paid): Top 5 M&A plays ranked, my portfolio recap with real positions, what I bought/sold this week, and what I’m watching next.
Free: Next Monday’s preview. Want the deep dives and personalized portfolio analysis? $10/month or $100/year.
The Bottom Line
CLNN proved position sizing beats perfect timing. I trimmed on risk, caught the +19% move with remaining shares, protected capital.
This week: PSTV (leptomeningeal), ACRS (massive institutional buying), GANX (disease-slowing Parkinson’s), COLB (activist bank M&A).
The key isn’t catching every move perfectly. It’s positioning to survive being wrong while capturing upside when you’re right.
That’s how you build wealth without blowing up.
See you Wednesday.
A Note of Gratitude
To my original retail investors who’ve been with me from the start—thank you for trusting the process and proving that disciplined investing beats meme stock gambling.
To my paid subscribers—your support makes this research possible. Thank you for believing in the mission.
And a special shoutout to the group chat—the real-time discussions, idea sharing, and collaborative analysis have been incredible. The quality of conversation and the collective intelligence in that space is exactly what investing communities should be.
Finally, a warm welcome to the Substack authors and institutional followers who’ve recently joined. Whether you’re managing $50K or $50M, the principles are the same: position sizing, risk management, and real catalysts over hype.
Let’s keep building together.
Against meme stocks. For disciplined investing.
Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a registered investment advisor. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Biotech and small-cap stocks are highly volatile and speculative. I may hold positions in discussed securities. Do your own research. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
Brilliant, this systematic approach to managing volatility, especially with the PSTV example, makes me curious about how you balance the financial strategy with the profound human impact of such biotech investments, something you articulate with such clarity.
Thanks for sharing the ETF calculator - very handy tool