Week Ahead Preview

Sunday, February 8, 2026

What Just Happened

The Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time in history on Friday. Let that sink in. After a brutal three-day tech sell-off, indexes ripped back hard. The Dow surged 1,206 points (+2.4%), the S&P climbed 1.9%, and the Nasdaq added 2.1%. Bitcoin bounced above $70K.

But here is the thing. This week could test that number.

The government shutdown delayed both the January jobs report AND the January CPI into the same week. Normally these hit two separate weeks. This time you get retail sales and employment data Wednesday and CPI data Friday. That is a triple dose of macro reality compressed into one week.

Seeking Alpha flagged January CPI as the first print where tariff pass-through effects start showing up in the data. Transportation prices are rising. Inventory buildups are underway. And inventory prices are expected to start reflecting the full weight of import duties. Core CPI estimate is +0.3% month over month, up from +0.2% in December. If it comes in hot, the “rate cuts are coming” narrative dies for the first half of 2026. If it comes in cool, we rip.

Morningstar noted the US equity market is trading at about a 5% discount to their composite fair value estimates, with small caps looking “especially attractive.” That lines up with what we have been building on the Wealth Ladder. Trade Ideas ran a piece titled “Small Caps Lead the Charge: Why IWM and Russell 2000 Are Dominating 2026.”

My read on a pullback this week: possible but not guaranteed. New all-time high on a Friday, delayed macro data compression, tariff inflation fears, and Challenger reported 108,435 job cuts announced in January, up 205% from December’s 35,553. That is the highest January total since 2009, driven by UPS cutting 30,000 from its Amazon partnership wind-down. The setup is fragile enough for an intraday shakeout mid-week around the data drops, but 50,000 on the Dow is a psychological level that tends to act as support once it is broken. A full reversal off that in one week on data alone is unlikely. Expect chop, not collapse. React to the reaction, not the headline.

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Ticker Reviews

NRXP -- NRx Pharmaceuticals | $1.90

Clinical-stage CNS biopharma with two drugs targeting suicidal depression. NRX-100 is preservative-free IV ketamine. NRX-101 is an oral combo for maintenance after the acute crisis. Here is why this is on the radar right now.

There is no FDA-approved drug for acute suicidal ideation. None. Zero. 50,000 Americans die by suicide annually. NRXP is going directly after that gap.

On January 14, they announced a 70,000 patient real-world evidence dataset from Osmind, covering nearly one million treatment sessions, to be submitted to the FDA in support of Accelerated Approval for NRX-100. That is one of the largest RWE submissions ever for a psychiatric indication. The drug has Fast Track Designation and NRX-101 has Breakthrough Therapy Designation. Stacked designations.

They also have KETAFREE, a preservative-free generic ketamine with an ANDA accepted as “substantially complete” by FDA. GDUFA goal date is July 29, 2026. That is a potential revenue-generating approval less than 6 months out.

On the clinic side, they launched HOPE Therapeutics in Florida doing TMS, ketamine, hyperbaric oxygen, and psychotherapy for first responders and veterans. They just partnered with neurocare Group AG to integrate their 400+ TMS machines nationwide.

The catch: going concern flagged. Cash runway through July 2026. Current ratio 0.29x. Earnings misses are getting worse. Q3 2025 was -$0.27 vs -$0.05 expected. They will almost certainly need to raise capital. At $1.90, any offering is dilutive.

Four analysts, all Strong Buy. BTIG at $25, D. Boral at $34, Ascendiant at $48, HC Wainwright at $40. Average target around $36.75. HC Wainwright modeled $123M in 2026 revenue if KETAFREE launches.

Key dates: March 16 earnings (cash position update is critical). March 23 annual meeting. July 29 KETAFREE GDUFA date.

Bottom line: the unmet medical need is real, the designations are stacked, and the catalysts are dated. But the balance sheet is on life support. Speculative. Size accordingly.

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ADAG -- Adagene | $2.63

Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company working on muzastotug (ADG126), an anti-CD137 agonist antibody using their proprietary SAFEbody masking technology. Lead program is muzastotug + pembrolizumab in third-line-plus microsatellite stable (MSS) colorectal cancer.

Why this matters: immunotherapy does not work in MSS colorectal cancer. That is roughly 85% of all colorectal cancers. If muzastotug cracks that wall, it is transformative. At ASCO 2025, they showed a favorable safety profile at 10-20x the therapeutic dose of other CD137 agonists that failed due to liver toxicity. That is the SAFEbody platform doing its job.

Phase 1b/2 data update on muzastotug + pembrolizumab in 3L+ MSS CRC patients remains on track for Q1 2026. That means data could drop any week now. FDA granted Fast Track Designation in December 2025.

The balance sheet is clean. $74.5 million cash as of December 31, 2025, anticipated to provide runway into late 2027. No going concern issues here.

They also signed a licensing deal with Third Arc Bio for two masked CD3 T cell engagers using SAFEbody technology, with milestone payments up to $840 million.

Four analysts, all Strong Buy. Guggenheim at $9, Lucid Capital at $9, HC Wainwright at $7. Average target $8.00, which is 204% upside from current.

Important note: Adagene is headquartered in Suzhou, China with a US office in San Diego. That means you are taking on geopolitical risk. Trade tensions, tariff escalation, potential ADR delisting threats. These are real considerations for any China-based biotech. The science can be perfect and the stock can still get hit by macro headlines that have nothing to do with the pipeline. Eyes open.

Key dates: Q1 2026 data readout (imminent). March 31 estimated earnings. Phase 3 planned for 2027 if data supports it.

Bottom line: imminent data catalyst, clean balance sheet, massive unmet need in MSS CRC, and a platform that solved the liver toxicity problem that killed every other CD137 program. China risk is the asterisk.

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Week Ahead Catalysts

Wednesday, Feb 11 December Retail Sales (delayed from shutdown) January Employment Situation Report (delayed from shutdown) Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Hourly Earnings

Friday, Feb 13 January CPI. This is the big one. Core CPI expected +0.3% MoM, up from +0.2% in December First print reflecting full tariff pass-through

Earnings This Week McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Cisco, Ford, Shopify, Coinbase, Moderna, Gilead, Vertex, AstraZeneca, BP, CVS Health, Spotify, Roku, Arista Networks, Palo Alto Networks, AppLovin, Airbnb, Pinterest, Cloudflare, Datadog, T-Mobile, Applied Materials

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Correction: Banking Sleeve Update

Two names that should have been in the banking sleeve from the start. Correcting that now.

COLB -- Columbia Banking System | $32.07 Market cap $9.59B. P/E 14.19x. Dividend $1.45 (4.52%). Four straight earnings beats. Q4 2025 EPS $0.82 vs $0.72 expected (+13.89%). Q3 was a monster at $0.85 vs $0.68 expected (+25%). Revenue TTM $3.22B. Pacific Premier integration complete, giving them roughly 350 branches across eight Western states. The dominant Western regional. Piper Sandler has a Buy at $36. Stephens has a Buy at $37. Stock just hit 52-week highs Friday. Zacks ran “Columbia Banking’s 2026 Playbook After Pacific Premier Buyout” this week. This is a post-acquisition value play with a fat yield and Western dominance.

FITB -- Fifth Third Bancorp | $55.47 Market cap $36.41B. P/E 15.58x. Dividend $1.54 (2.80%). Also four straight earnings beats. Q4 2025 EPS $1.08 vs $1.00 expected (+8%). Revenue TTM $13.66B. Hitting 52-week highs. Zacks ran “FITB Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?” this week. Benzinga put it on their “Stock Whisper” index. Seeking Alpha featured it in Top 10 High-Yield Dividend Stocks for February. TD Cowen has a Strong Buy at $60. Truist has a Strong Buy at $60. Super-regional that just leveled up. Southeast expansion is the long-term earnings driver.

Both belong in the banking book. Both printing money. Both beating earnings consistently. Correction made.

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Education Corner: Trade Versions vs Hold Versions of ETFs

Most people do not know this, but a lot of the biggest ETFs have twin versions. Same index, same holdings, same returns. But one is built for traders and one is built for holders. If you are in the wrong version for your strategy, you are leaving money on the table every single year.

QQQ vs QQQM

Both are Invesco funds. Both track the Nasdaq-100. Same 100 stocks, same sector weights, same rebalancing schedule. Identical exposure.

QQQ charges 0.20%. QQQM charges 0.15%. That 5 basis point gap on $100,000 held for 30 years compounds into a $15,000+ difference in your pocket. Not a rounding error.

QQQ trades $17-22 billion in daily volume. QQQM trades roughly $150-500 million. QQQ has daily-expiring options, one of only three ETFs that does. If you are swing trading Nasdaq exposure, selling covered calls, or running spreads, QQQ is the tool. It was built for institutional trading desks.

If you are buying and holding for years, adding on dips, building a core growth allocation, QQQM saves you money every single day you own it. The lower expense ratio compounds in your favor. The lower share price also makes it easier to buy fractional-free.

QQQ is the trading version. QQQM is the holding version. Pick based on what you are actually doing with it.

SLV vs PSLV

This one goes deeper than expense ratios. The structure is completely different.

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) is backed by physical silver bars stored in JPMorgan vaults in London. Expense ratio 0.50%. Massive liquidity, tight spreads. But you cannot redeem your shares for physical silver. And SLV is taxed as a collectible at the federal level, meaning long-term gains hit 28%, not the standard 15-20% capital gains rate.

PSLV (Sprott Physical Silver Trust) is a closed-end fund, not an ETF. It holds unencumbered, fully allocated London Good Delivery silver bars stored at the Royal Canadian Mint. Expense ratio 0.57%, slightly higher. But PSLV lets qualified investors actually redeem shares for physical silver. The silver is not leased out, not encumbered.

Because PSLV is closed-end, it can trade at a premium or discount to NAV. Recently it has been trading at roughly a 4-5% discount, meaning you are buying silver below spot through the fund. That is an opportunity for holders. But it can also trade at a premium during silver manias.

SLV tracks spot more tightly because authorized participants can create and redeem shares. PSLV can drift.

SLV is the trading version. Tight spreads, massive liquidity, tracks spot closely. Use it for short-term moves. PSLV is the holding version. Physical allocation, government mint custody, potential NAV discount. Use it for long-term silver exposure.

SPY vs VOO vs SPLG

All three track the S&P 500. Same 500 stocks. Same returns before fees.

SPY charges 0.09%. VOO charges 0.03%. SPLG charges 0.02%. Over 30 years on $100,000, the difference between SPY and VOO compounds to roughly $8,000-10,000. Between SPY and SPLG, even more.

SPY trades $30+ billion daily and has the most liquid options market on the planet. If you are a trader, SPY is the tool. VOO and SPLG are the holding versions. Lower fees, identical returns, better for buy-and-hold wealth building. SPLG has the lowest share price, making it the most accessible for small recurring buys.

The Rule

If you are trading it, use the liquid version. If you are holding it, use the cheap version. Do not pay trading infrastructure fees on a position you plan to hold for 10 years. And do not sacrifice liquidity on a position you are actively managing.

Most people never think about this. Now you will.

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That is the week. Big data, big earnings, and a biotech catalyst calendar that is stacked. See you on the other side.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. These are observations, opinions, and educational content only. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any tickers mentioned are not recommendations to buy or sell. You are responsible for your own trades.